In this year’s U.S. Presidential election, the candidate who wins enough of the key battleground states will win the election. In 2016, those key swing states with Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. And in 2020, those four states, along with Arizona, are widely seen as some of the pivotal swing states that will determine the fate of the election.
How will those states votes? There’s no way for sure to know until Election Day in November, although polls can be helpful for prognosticating.
But what if there was another way to guess? Could app usage be a helpful predictor? That’s what we wanted to find out.
We recently ran a little thought experiment at InMobi, using our various mobile first-party data sources to see which apps were commonly used in swing states. We then compared those usage patterns with what we found in what will likely be solidly Republican and Democratic states.
Here’s what we found.
Before we dive into the results, let’s talk about the process a little bit more. As our control group, we first looked at three representative Red states (Alabama, Utah and Indiana) and three representative Blue states (Vermont, Illinois and Washington). To further confirm how each of these six states are indeed leaning, we looked at the following criteria in particular:
With this confirmation in place, we then looked to see how the five swing states we analyzed (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) aligned based on the above criteria. Here’s how these states are stacking up at the moment:
One thing that became very clear in our analysis is just how different each of these states really are from one another. In particular, a state’s demographics and regionality (where in the country the state is located) really impacted what apps were commonly found in each location.
Interested in reaching voters/consumers in these swing states or any other part of the U.S.? Reach out today to learn more about how InMobi can help.
Matthew Kaplan has over a decade of digital marketing experience, working to support the content goals of the world’s biggest B2B and B2C brands. He is a passionate app user and evangelist, working to support diverse marketing campaigns across devices. He also previously covered politics and government for the Daily News Tribune.
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